| Exploring the Mechanisms for Implementing
a Risk Management Process:
Overall Approach and Practical Example | Istraživanje mehanizama za primenu procesa upravljanja rizikom: opsti pristup i prakticni primer |
| Management, [pdf] | Menadžment, [pdf] |
| ID: 7.2012.64.9 Number: 64 Year: 2012 UDC: 005.52:005.334]:004.032.26 ; 005.521 [tmx] [bow] |
Laura Juznik Rotar
Institution: Higher School of Business and Management Novo mesto | Laura Juznik Rotar
Institucija: Visoka škola za poslovne studije I menadžment Novo mesto |
Mitja Kozar
Institution: Gorenje d.d. | Mitja Kozar
Institucija: Gorenje d.d. |
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to explore the mechanisms for implementing a risk management process into an organisation.
A way of exploring the mechanisms for implementing a risk management process is to break it
down into its component parts and examine what each part should contribute to the overall risk management
process. The main aim of the empirical part of the paper is on the other hand to present empirical research of
risk management focusing on forecasting sales using a neural network method. A neural network is a powerful
data modeling tool that is able to capture and represent complex input/output relationships. Integrating an overall risk management process into an organisation can significantly improve the response of the organisation to unplanned events (good or bad) and enhances its ability to compete, not to mention that the objectives
of an organisation are easier to achieve and that resources areeffectively allocated. Applying neural
network method produces consistently accurate sales forecast. However, effort should be put in proper preparation
of dataset. This paper has a tremendous added value for all risk management officers, CFOs and all others
involved in risk management process. The added value is shown in the description of theoretical risk
management model which is upgraded with a practical approach example.
| Apstrakt
Cilj ovog rada je da istraži mehanizme za primenu procesa upravljanja rizikom u organizaciji. Jedan od nacina da se ispitaju mehanizmi za primenu procesa upravljanja rizikom jeste da se proces razloži na sastavne delove i da se utvrdi kako svaki deo treba da doprinese ukupnom procesu upravljanja rizikom. Glavni cilj empirijskog de la rada je, s druge strane, da predstavi empirijsko istraživanje upravljanja rizikom sa posebnom pažnjom usmerenom na predvidanje prodaje primenom metoda neuronskih mreža. Neuronska mreža predstavlja mocnu alatku za modelovanje podataka, sposobnu da obuhvati i predstavi složene odnose inpu-ta/autputa. Integrisanje ukupnog procesa upravljanja rizikom u organizaciju može u znacajnoj meri da poboljša reakciju organizacije na neplanirane dogadaje (bi l o da su povoljni ili nepovoljni) i da poveca njenu konkurentnu sposobnost, da ne pominjemo cinjenicu da se na taj nacin ciljevi organizacije mogu lakše postici i da se resursi raspodeljuju na efektivniji nacin. Primenom metoda neuronskih mreža dobijaju se dosledna i precizna predvidanja prodaje. Ipak, treba truda da se skup podataka pripremi kako treba. Ovaj rad predstavlja ogromnu dodatu vrednost za sve one koji upravljaju rizikom, za finansijske direktore i sve druge koji ucestvuju u procesu upravljanja rizikom. Ova dodata vrednost prikazana je u opisu teorijskog modela upravljanja rizikom koji je onda usavršen kroz primer prakticnog pristupa.
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| Keywords: enterprise risk management, strategical risk management, operational risk management, risk management
process, organisation, neural network, forecasting | Ključne reči: Upravljanje rizikom preduzeca, upravljanje strateškim rizikom, upravljanje operacionim rizikom, proces upravljanja rizikom, organizacija, neuronska mreža, predvidanje |
| Pages: 77-86 | Strane: 77-86 |